I wrote this message to my regional denominational leader this morning (someone I have a ton of respect for). This articulates my thoughts on what I believe every church in Michigan should do right now regarding any weekend gatherings, services, or activities that are still moving forward with in-person participation. I’m noticing the reluctance of small, rural churches (and businesses, libraries, and other organizations that serve the public) to take swift action to cancel. The time for church leaders to act is now. Not Monday. Not next week. But right now. All of the UMC and Catholic churches have made the decision to cancel in Northern Michigan (where I live), but the smaller, independent, non-denominational churches are dragging their feet. I think this is a massive mistake. I make my case below. I am not a doctor, nor a health care professional. I’m simply a pastor who is trying to make the best decision possible in an unprecedented environment, with information that is at times difficult to make sense of. I hope this helps you as you try to make decisions around whether or not to cancel your in-person church gatherings.
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Dear Church Leader,
I wanted to let you know that our church has decided to cancel all of our worship gatherings, groups, and events, for the next 3 weeks. We'll reevaluate what our next steps will be after that.
I want to encourage you to do the same.
Here's why:
We're no longer at the point of being able to contain the transmission of the virus called COVID-19 within our communities. At this point, the public health strategy is mitigation. Social distancing is the only way to slow down the spread of this virus, in order to keep the cases at a level our current healthcare system can actually manage. So far, we're following the Italian model, which is to cancel most everything, stay home, etc. As you likely know, Italy is currently overrun with the virus, especially in the north (Milan to Venice), and because of this their health care system is overwhelmed. What that means is the strategy we’re currently following - The Italian Model - is not working. The north of Italy is a modern, wealthy country, just like the US, and their healthcare system mirrors our own. Their doctors are having to pick and choose who to care for, and therefore who gets to potentially live, or not. You can read more about this here.
Gov. Whitmer has called on all organizations to cancel all meetings of 100 people or more. This would preclude many of the churches in ABC-MI. However, this doesn't take into account those who are at the highest risk if they contract this disease. Chances are, if you or I get COVID-19, we'll get a little sick, we'll stay home for 2-3 weeks, but otherwise, we'll be ok. This is not guaranteed, but statistically, this is the likely outcome from those ages 20-50 years old. This is simply not the case for those over the age of 60, or for those who are already dealing with an underlying condition, such as asthma, etc. The mortality rate jumps from 5%-15% for those in the 60-90 age range. This is probably 2/3 of my congregation. What that means is, even if we follow best practices when we gather (no handshakes/hugs, door handles disinfected, no passing of the offering plate, etc.) the risk posed to our 60 and older crowd of contracting the virus is substantial. The risk that someone 60 and older will die if they contract the virus is substantial. I believe these risks are substantial enough to warrant a canceling of all church-related events. You can read more about this as a mitigation strategy here.
In Michigan, we've gone from 2 confirmed cases on March 11, to 16 confirmed cases on March 13, to 25 confirmed cases as of the morning of March 14. If these numbers hold, and if they mirror what we're seeing in Wuhan Province in China, and in northern Italy, we can expect this number to be 10x by next weekend (250 confirmed cases) and 10x the following weekend (2,500 confirmed cases). This is just in Michigan. Again, if we don't take strong measures now to socially isolate, these numbers *could* go 10x in three weeks, which would be 25,000 confirmed cases just in Michigan by April 4. I really hope I’m wrong about all of this, but the data I’m reading, coupled with the way in which our society is currently handling this pandemic suggests otherwise. The way we bring this number down is to have leaders of all sorts - business owners, educational leaders, faith leaders, public sector leaders, library directors, private sector leaders - make the call NOW to keep people at home by canceling everything. No one will tell us to do this. We have to make this call. This is our responsibility. This is on us.
In all of this, I want to remind you and all Christian leaders that our response to COVID-19 is based on care, and love for our neighbor. We cancel things in response to a pandemic because we care for the people in our care. At my church, we'll be having our worship gathering online, and we're working on a plan to keep folks connected to each other through prayer and regular phone check-ins. This will not meet all of the needs of our community, which I’m well aware of. But, this is the least we can do in the face of an unprecedented situation like this COVID-19 pandemic. Andy Crouch wrote a beautiful and timely piece outlining so much of this for Christian Leaders - you can read it here (strongly recommended).
Please know I'm praying for you and your leadership. I'm praying for wisdom and discernment. I'm praying that all of us in leadership will have the courage to make the hard decisions we need to make, even if in the short run people are upset with us, or don't understand what we're doing, or why we're doing it. We're doing this to protect people. That's what leaders do. We're doing this because we care. We're doing this, not out of anxiety, but with a calm presence, a sure-footed stance that God is with us, God's Spirit is guiding us, and we can both follow Jesus and scientific best practices at the same time. God has given us the tools we need to make the best decisions we can make. It is now our time, and our turn, to act. in order to slow the spread of this disease. We can do this.
Finally, a further pastoral word from a letter I wrote to my church on March 12:
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For many, the spread of this virus has caused fear and anxiety. Scripture is clear that God has given us a spirit of love, not fear (2 Timothy 1:7). In fact, one of the most uttered phrases in the entire biblical Story is “do not be afraid.” My prayer is that we would sense the peace of Christ in the midst of these circumstances and that we would trust the working of God’s Spirit, even as things feel uncertain. Christians are the people who remain calm in the face of uncertainty, and who stay grounded in the person and presence of Jesus Christ during times of societal anxiety.
This does not mean we should be careless or reactionary, as so many online or in many popular media outlets are prone to do. Rather, our invitation is to work together to serve our church and community in a way that demonstrates trust in the reality that our God walks with us, our God goes before us, and our God never leaves our side, even as the future seems a little more uncertain today than it did yesterday.
We trust that God goes with us, and the Holy Spirit is our sustainer, even as we face this unprecedented time. We will continue to update you regularly as any of our plans change.
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May God’s peace be close as you navigate the coming days and weeks.
Grace & Peace,
Rev. David W. Rice